GBPJPY [2015.11.27] with Weekly Pivot Computed

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

Even with a neutral news on the Second Estimate GDP q/q and positive news in the Prelim Business Investment q/q on the British pound the pair continued to go downward. Here we can observe that on the past few days the pair tried to break the nearest DP upward and got rejected from there and continued to break the nearest downward DP. The recent broken DP downward has now became a new intraday resistance  for the pair (See and Review 2015.11.25 and 2015.11.26 DPs and charts [1 hour]). We'd observe the pair again  during Monday's session if this current downward trend continues. There are a lot of news for the week for the British Pound and only a single news for the Japanese Yen. We'll see if the news would now push back the pair to be bullish or give more leverage to the bears.

NEWS:

Nov 30
JPY        Retail Sales y/y
GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m

Dec 1
GBP        Bank Stress Test Results
GBP        BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP        BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP        Manufacturing PMI

Dec 2
GBP        Halifax HPI m/m (Tentative)
GBP        Construction PMI

Dec 3GBP        Services PMI

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.10/185.30
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70
182.40/182.60


Daily Pivot

184.67

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1      185.10
 R2      185.74
 R3      186.17
 R4      186.81
 S1      184.03
 S2      183.60
 S3      182.96
 S4      182.53

Weekly Pivot

185.22

Weekly Support and Resistance
 R1      186.21
 R2      187.95
 R3      188.94
 R4      190.68
 S1      183.48
 S2      182.49
 S3      180.75
 S4      179.76

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.26]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

The pair continued with it's second rejection from the 185.80/185.60 DP but bounced up again from the 184.60/184.75 DP. With the lack of major news and with the US market closed for the holiday the pair didn't move much and only traded between the two DPs throughout the day. Currently, the market didn't react that much from the mixed news from Japan, negative Household Spending y/y and positive Tokyo Core CPI y/y . We'll see how the market will react later once the London Market opens and also after the news release on the British Pound. Currently, an area we'd observe best is the area around the 185.10/185.30 range since most of the trades happened around this area and seems the area has been an area of contention between the bulls and bears for the day

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
187.30/187.40
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.10/185.30
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
A decisive break of both DPs 185.10/185.30 and 185.80/185.60 would give us a much more decisive signal that the bulls have come again to take over and we'd look for further entries. For smaller targets if the DP 185.10/185.30 is broken one could initially target the DP 185.80/185.60  (also our daily R1 ).

For Bears :
Another rejection from the DPs 185.10/185.30 and 185.80/185.60 we'd look again to target the 184.60/184.75 DP as target. For further downside move the 184.60/184.75 DP  needs to be breached first then we'd look at 181.10/184.30 DP and a break of the the 183.50/183.70 DP then we'd tlook further for a much lower target.

Daily Pivot
185.12

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1 185.60
 R2 186.15
 R3 186.63
 R4 187.18
 S1 184.57
 S2 184.09
 S3 183.54
 S4 183.06

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.25]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

The pair started to climb up after the bounce on yesterday's daily low of 184.31. The bears tried pushing it back down early in the day but failed to capitalize and the pair started to climb. As we hoped the pair broke the DP of 185.20/185.00 area and thus we are able to enter the trade and targeted the next DP as our initial target 185.80/185.60 (Coincidentally this DP is also around our first Daily resistance yesterday.) For the pair to continue to climb upward we'd like this pair to break the 185.80/185.60 DP as the range was rejected in the 1 hour chart (almost two times now as of writing.) We'd monitor the pair further and volatility might get affected since today is Turkey Day in the U.S.. Happy Thanksgiving day to those in the U.S.


Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
187.30/187.40
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
The pair got rejected at the 185.80/185.60 DP (1 hour chart) before lunch in the US market and seems another rejection nearing the close of the US market. The bulls needs to hone their horns and break the current DP for us to see a re-climb  of the pair.

For Bears :
Further rejection of the 185.80/185.60 DP would give bears the opportunity to short this pair again. A bounce from this area and we'll look at the next DP 185.20/185.00 which initially stopped the initial rejection at the 185.80/185.60 DP. A break of these two DPs then we'll look for further selling opportunities and TPs .

Daily Pivot
185.29

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1      186.11
 R2      186.59
 R3      187.41
 R4      187.89
 S1      184.81
 S2      183.99
 S3      183.51
 S4      182.69

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.24]

Caveat Emptor
GBPJPY

The pair continued down yesterday and continued to 184.31. It bounced back from that level and closed at the 184.73 mark. Currently, we are looking forward to the news on both the Japanese Yen and British Pound for possible reversal of the pair.

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
The pair closed around the 184.80/184.70 area. We are looking forward for it to make a decisive close above the 185.20/185.00 area before we considering going long. So far it is best to sit in the sidelines at the moment and wait for the news and market response for further confirmation.

For Bears :
The pair continued below the 61.8 fib and almost but bounced around the 184.30 area. The pair closed around yesterday's 184.70/184.50 (DP). We'd like to see it break that area down for further short continuation to then target our next DP (184.30/184.10) a break of this area and the pair might re-test the 183.70/183.50 DP again (10/27 - 10/28 lows). The pair seems to be trying to climb up but depending on the news releases today from both the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, together with the issue in the Middle East regarding Turkey and Russia the pair might get battered again. But so far we'll watch and see where the market will go.

Daily Pivot
185.01

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1       185.70
 R2       186.68
 R3       187.37
 R4      188.35
 S1      184.03
 S2       183.34
 S3       182.36
 S4       181.67

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.23]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

The pair continued down and is currently just a bit below the 61.8 Fib in the 4 hour chart of the low (2015.11.06 12:00 [GMT+2]) and high of (2015.11.19 00:00 [GMT+2]).  Seems, the pair is currently consolidating at the 185.80/185.60 area (current DP. If the pair breaks the current DP, will look at a small short to target the next DP or at most the 100 fib. Looks like the bears are currently a bit in control for the moment until the next major news would push it down further or give the bulls a chance to take over.


Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
188.10/188.30
187.60/187.80
187.30/187.40
186.60/186.80 
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20
184.50/184.70
184.00/184.20


For Bulls :The Pair is currently consolidating just below the 61.8 fib of the 4 hour chart of the low (2015.11.06 12:00 [GMT+2]) and high of (2015.11.19 00:00 [GMT+2]).  For the bulls to start taking over we'd like to see it break the 186.30/186.20 area and set an initial target of the 186.60/186.80 area (DP) and break that area before it can climb up further.

For Bears :
The pair closed slightly below the 61.8 fib and is currently consolidating there. We are looking for a break below the 185.80/185.60 area to target the 185.20/185.00 area. A further break of this and we'd look at the next DP. (see Current Areas to Consider for DPs)

Daily Pivot
186.11

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1       186.58
 R2       187.44
 R3       187.91
 R4      188.77
 S1      185.25
 S2       184.78
 S3       183.92
 S4       183.45

GBPJPY Summary With Computed Weekly Pivot [2015.11.20]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY
The pair continued on to retrace down with bears taking over due to the pound news on Public Sector Borrowing. Actual is 7.5B which is a lot more than the forecast 5.5B. Since, there is no major news between the pound and the yen until Wednesday, will be observing the pair if it breaks the  186.30/186.10  area for shorts or climb up above 186.60 area for long.

News To Watch Out For :
British Pound

Nov 25 (Wed)
Autumn Forecast Statement
Nov 27 (Friday)
Second Estimate GDP q/q
Prelim Business Investment q/q

Japanese Yen
Nov 25 (Wed)
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Nov 27 (Friday)
Household Spending y/y

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Current Areas To Consider (Observed Areas):
187.30 /187.40
186.60/186.80
186.10/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20




For Bulls :
If the pair recovers and goes up, we'll see if the pair can break the 186.80/186.60 area (majority of the trades happened here last Friday) and climb up. If it breaks this area, we could target another previous DP (decision point) 187.40/187.30 area. Beyond that range we'll look next at 187.60/187.80.  

For Bears :
Currently the pair at the 50 fib in the 4 hour chart of the low (2015.11.06 12:00 [GMT+2]) and high of (2015.11.19 00:00 [GMT+2]). A further break of this area (186.30/186.10) would give us a signal to short the pair and target 61.8 fib (roughly the 185.80/185.60 area. A further break and we'll target 185.20/185.00 area.


Daily Pivot (2015.11.20)
187.02

Daily Support and Resistance (2015.11.20)
 R1      187.59
 R2      188.64
 R3      189.21
 R4      190.26
 S1      185.97
 S2      185.40
 S3      184.35
 S4      183.78
 
 Weekly Pivot (2015.11.16 - 2015.11.20)
187.10


Weekly Support and Resistance(2015.11.16 - 2015.11.20)
 R1      188.23
 R2      189.91
 R3      191.04
 R4      192.72
 S1      185.42
 S2      184.29
 S3      182.61
 S4      181.48
 
 

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.19]

[Caveat Emptor]

GBPJPY

The pair went as high as 188.79 today and retraced back down to the 187.70 area. This retracement can be due to bulls closing out for some profit and also due to the news released (GBP - Retail Sales m/m) which was at -0.6% instead of the forecasted -0.4%, a lot lower than the previous month release 1.7%. Currently, the pair has found some support and consolidated in the 187.80/187.60 area. My personal outlook for this is still bullish with my week's target to be at 189.10/189.00 area(hoping it reaches this area). A close near and above 189.00 area and we might see 192.00 and 195.00 (hopefully)  in the next few weeks.

Areas To Take Note of :

188.30/188.10
187.80/187.60
187.40/187.30
187.00/186.80

For Bulls:

A break of the  188.30/188.10 area, would help push to the target 189.10/189.00 area as less resistance was seen from yesterday's high.

For Bears:

Currently, the pair has consolidated at around 187.80/187.60 a break of this area and it might try to test the support (187.40/187.30) which rejected the price as of 11/18/2015. A break of this and we'll see it try for 187.00/186.80 area and we'll look for further downside target.

Daily Pivot

186.88

Resistance and Support

 R1       187.78
 R2       188.34
 R3       189.24
 R4      189.80
 S1      186.32
 S2       185.42
 S3       184.86
 S4       183.96

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.17] (Bullish)

[CAVEAT EMPTOR]
GBPJPY 


Outlook - Bullish

Still riding on the strength of the Gable, pair traded heavily around the previous DP (187.40/187.30) and reach our target 187.70/187.60 and met a slight resistance there. Still, we are looking forward for the pair to climb higher and hopefully break the 188.00/188.20 area and continue on to our long term target of 192.

Intraday areas to watch out for (Decision Points):
187.60/187.70 - this area can either turn to be a weak support if the pair tries to go down and becomes a resistance once the pair breaks going down and tries to test out the 187.40/187.20 area

187.20/187.40 - previous day DP (Decision Point) where the bulls and the bears tried to contest for control with the bulls winning (due to a strong Gable). The pair might try to retest this area and if breaks we might see a retest of the 187.00/186.80 area


Pivot Point
187.51


Resistance and Support
 R1      188.18
 R2      188.63
 R3      189.30
 R4      189.75
 S1      187.06
 S2      186.39
 S3      185.94
 S4      185.27

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.16]

[CAVEAT EMPTOR]

GBPJPY

 Long term, the pair is looking to move further uphill looking at 188 then 192 and probably 195 (best scenario). Based from the trades from yesterday, we could look at the following key areas if the pair will range and test these key areas. (187.40/.30, 187.00/186.80, 186.40/186.20).

 For upside the pair would try to break the 187.40/187.30 area for it to reach my initial target of 187.60/187.70 area.

Intra-day it might try to retest the 187.00/186.80 area as that level gave the bulls a hard time to break and maintain last week.

 If the bears take over, another support area would be the range 186.40/186.20 as heavy contention between the bulls and the bears happened there yesterday before the pair went up :)

 Pivot Point 186.88

Support and Resistances

 R1   187.78

 R2   188.34

 R3   189.24

 R4   189.80

 S1    186.32

 S2    185.42

 S3    184.86

 S4    183.96