GBPJPY [2015.11.30] Summary

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

Seems, the pair has current broken the current down trend from last week. Currently, the pair has crossed above the 60- Simple Moving Average (1 hour chart) [pair is still below the 200 SMA] and  is currently above the ichimoku cloud of the 1 hour chart to confirm bullish trend in the 1 hour chart. However, we should be watch out for a slight correction since the pair is nearing the overbought levels in RSI(10).

Beyond that we should be wary on the swings of the pair since there are some major news on the pair today.






For Bulls:
The pair tested the DP 185.60/185.80 and was rejected. We'd see today if it will test this DP again and be able to break it. Once broken we'd look for our next DP for our initial TP. But for longer term I'm looking to target 189 at the moment.


For Bears:
A break of the 185.10/185.30 area would give us a target of the next DP (184.60/184.75). If it breaks the second DP the pair might meet a bit of resistance at the 184.10/184.30 area since the pair got rejected twice in that area last Friday (1 hour chart).

NEWS:

Dec 1
GBP        Bank Stress Test Results
GBP        BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP        BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP        Manufacturing PMI

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.10/185.30
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70
182.40/182.60


Daily Pivot

185.10

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1      185.10
 R2      185.74
 R3      186.17
 R4      186.81
 S1      184.03
 S2      183.60
 S3      182.96
 S4      182.53

GBPJPY [2015.11.27] with Weekly Pivot Computed

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

Even with a neutral news on the Second Estimate GDP q/q and positive news in the Prelim Business Investment q/q on the British pound the pair continued to go downward. Here we can observe that on the past few days the pair tried to break the nearest DP upward and got rejected from there and continued to break the nearest downward DP. The recent broken DP downward has now became a new intraday resistance  for the pair (See and Review 2015.11.25 and 2015.11.26 DPs and charts [1 hour]). We'd observe the pair again  during Monday's session if this current downward trend continues. There are a lot of news for the week for the British Pound and only a single news for the Japanese Yen. We'll see if the news would now push back the pair to be bullish or give more leverage to the bears.

NEWS:

Nov 30
JPY        Retail Sales y/y
GBP        Net Lending to Individuals m/m

Dec 1
GBP        Bank Stress Test Results
GBP        BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP        BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP        Manufacturing PMI

Dec 2
GBP        Halifax HPI m/m (Tentative)
GBP        Construction PMI

Dec 3GBP        Services PMI

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.10/185.30
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70
182.40/182.60


Daily Pivot

184.67

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1      185.10
 R2      185.74
 R3      186.17
 R4      186.81
 S1      184.03
 S2      183.60
 S3      182.96
 S4      182.53

Weekly Pivot

185.22

Weekly Support and Resistance
 R1      186.21
 R2      187.95
 R3      188.94
 R4      190.68
 S1      183.48
 S2      182.49
 S3      180.75
 S4      179.76

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.26]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

The pair continued with it's second rejection from the 185.80/185.60 DP but bounced up again from the 184.60/184.75 DP. With the lack of major news and with the US market closed for the holiday the pair didn't move much and only traded between the two DPs throughout the day. Currently, the market didn't react that much from the mixed news from Japan, negative Household Spending y/y and positive Tokyo Core CPI y/y . We'll see how the market will react later once the London Market opens and also after the news release on the British Pound. Currently, an area we'd observe best is the area around the 185.10/185.30 range since most of the trades happened around this area and seems the area has been an area of contention between the bulls and bears for the day

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
187.30/187.40
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.10/185.30
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
A decisive break of both DPs 185.10/185.30 and 185.80/185.60 would give us a much more decisive signal that the bulls have come again to take over and we'd look for further entries. For smaller targets if the DP 185.10/185.30 is broken one could initially target the DP 185.80/185.60  (also our daily R1 ).

For Bears :
Another rejection from the DPs 185.10/185.30 and 185.80/185.60 we'd look again to target the 184.60/184.75 DP as target. For further downside move the 184.60/184.75 DP  needs to be breached first then we'd look at 181.10/184.30 DP and a break of the the 183.50/183.70 DP then we'd tlook further for a much lower target.

Daily Pivot
185.12

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1 185.60
 R2 186.15
 R3 186.63
 R4 187.18
 S1 184.57
 S2 184.09
 S3 183.54
 S4 183.06

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.25]

[Caveat Emptor]
GBPJPY

The pair started to climb up after the bounce on yesterday's daily low of 184.31. The bears tried pushing it back down early in the day but failed to capitalize and the pair started to climb. As we hoped the pair broke the DP of 185.20/185.00 area and thus we are able to enter the trade and targeted the next DP as our initial target 185.80/185.60 (Coincidentally this DP is also around our first Daily resistance yesterday.) For the pair to continue to climb upward we'd like this pair to break the 185.80/185.60 DP as the range was rejected in the 1 hour chart (almost two times now as of writing.) We'd monitor the pair further and volatility might get affected since today is Turkey Day in the U.S.. Happy Thanksgiving day to those in the U.S.


Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
187.30/187.40
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
The pair got rejected at the 185.80/185.60 DP (1 hour chart) before lunch in the US market and seems another rejection nearing the close of the US market. The bulls needs to hone their horns and break the current DP for us to see a re-climb  of the pair.

For Bears :
Further rejection of the 185.80/185.60 DP would give bears the opportunity to short this pair again. A bounce from this area and we'll look at the next DP 185.20/185.00 which initially stopped the initial rejection at the 185.80/185.60 DP. A break of these two DPs then we'll look for further selling opportunities and TPs .

Daily Pivot
185.29

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1      186.11
 R2      186.59
 R3      187.41
 R4      187.89
 S1      184.81
 S2      183.99
 S3      183.51
 S4      182.69

GBPJPY Summary [2015.11.24]

Caveat Emptor
GBPJPY

The pair continued down yesterday and continued to 184.31. It bounced back from that level and closed at the 184.73 mark. Currently, we are looking forward to the news on both the Japanese Yen and British Pound for possible reversal of the pair.

Current Areas To Consider (Decision Points [DP]):
186.60/186.80
186.20/186.30
185.60/185.80
185.00/185.20
184.60/184.75
184.10/184.30
183.50/183.70

For Bulls :
The pair closed around the 184.80/184.70 area. We are looking forward for it to make a decisive close above the 185.20/185.00 area before we considering going long. So far it is best to sit in the sidelines at the moment and wait for the news and market response for further confirmation.

For Bears :
The pair continued below the 61.8 fib and almost but bounced around the 184.30 area. The pair closed around yesterday's 184.70/184.50 (DP). We'd like to see it break that area down for further short continuation to then target our next DP (184.30/184.10) a break of this area and the pair might re-test the 183.70/183.50 DP again (10/27 - 10/28 lows). The pair seems to be trying to climb up but depending on the news releases today from both the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, together with the issue in the Middle East regarding Turkey and Russia the pair might get battered again. But so far we'll watch and see where the market will go.

Daily Pivot
185.01

Daily Support and Resistance
 R1       185.70
 R2       186.68
 R3       187.37
 R4      188.35
 S1      184.03
 S2       183.34
 S3       182.36
 S4       181.67